County

Arlington Analytics developed the Arlington Model, which keeps track of every single property in the county. We match that data with data from the U.S. Census, Arlington Public Schools, Virginia State Police, various maps, development reports, a large number of historical reports and studies, and other data to create a comprehensive database on Arlington county. We use this data to determine how each type of property contributes to school enrollment and population growth, which in turn affects the budget. The full version of the Arlington Model has numerous options that do not present well on the web. Nonetheless, we present a set of apps that provide most of the functionality of the full version, and offers all of the same major insights that the full model provides.

  • Budget (Intro) is an app for examining the effects of student growth, population growth, assessment growth, tax rates, and office vacancy rates on the spending, revenues, and the deficit.
  • Budget (Advanced) is the same tool with many more options.
  • Population is an app that lets you see population projections and how development affects those projections.
  • Development is a tool that allows you to remove existing properties, add new properties, and evaluate the fiscal impacts of this development. These estimates are very rough estimates, however, the app should provide basic insights into the fiscal effects of redevelopment.
  • Debt Calculator is a simple model of debt-issuance which allows users to see the year-to-year budget effects of borrowing additional money.

    • Schools

    Student growth is the most important component of spending growth going forward. Nonetheless, a more granular look at where students are going to live will help plan for the location for additional schools as well as the need for other investments such as buses. Arlington Analytics has components that forecast students at a planning unit level. We have the ability to forecast the number of students per school based on development and student growth by type of property. In addition, by merging this data with school walk zones, we can forecast the need for transportation resources.

  • Student Enrollment is an app for examining the effects of development on county-wide APS student enrollment. The 2019 APS enrollment projections are provided as a basis for comparison.
  • Student Calculator allows you to see what the expected enrollment is for different types of development, and you can compare Arlington Analytics estimates against APS estimates. Note that specific qualities may affect the expected enrollment: for example, affordable housing dedicated to senior living will obviously have a much different impact on student enrollment than the modal committed affordable development.
  • Boundary Builder is an app that lets you build your own boundary. Advanced options are available below: You can choose which schools are option schools, how many students leave each school, any how many pre-K slots are available at each school. Arlington Analytics projections are available going out for 10 years. Data is based on the 2018 Boundary Change Process.

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